Sunday Afternoon 4/20

Carlos Gomez of the Brewers exchanged words with Pirates starting pitcher Gerrit Cole after tripling, inspiring a bench-clearing brawl. Two players were ejected, Gomez and Travis Snider.

I was not paying particularly close attention, as computer technology issues attracted my full attention.

I also wanted to watch the streaking Kansas City Royals and their young flamethrower, Yordano Ventura face the Twins. He threw a lot of gas, but he didn’t always color within the lines, and the Twins did what they do, four batters reaching base in the first inning, two by way of bases on balls, and the Twins scored twice. sending seven to the plate and watching 34 (!) pitches.

Ventura’s afternoon ended before the Royals recorded an out in the top of the fifth, leaving him with an ugly pitching line, 4 IP 6 H 4 ER 4 BB 6K. Oh, sure, he struck out 6 in 4 innings of work, but he threw 91 pitches ionly 56 for strikes) over those 4 innings, facing faced 22 batters, meaning his K%, 27.2%, while certainly solid, was not great, and the BB% was a ghastly 18.1%. (By the way, it is more accurate to use K% and BB% than BB/9 or K/9. Some people are really, uh, serious about the matter.) The Twins ended up cruising, winning 8-3, halting the Royals’ 5-game winning streak. Read the story in the Minneapolis or Kansas City newspapers or sift through the play-by-play.

I tuned back into the Brewers-Pirates game to see Ryan Braun hit another homerun against a high Jason Grilli fastball. This one tied the game up as Grilli blew another save, and the Brewers took the lead in top of the 14th inning thanks to a Khris Davis solo homerun,  Milwaukee held on to win, taking three of the series’ four games, improving their record to a Major League-best 14-5, 6-1 against the Pirates. The Pirates have dropped 5 of their last 6 and 8 of their last 10, all games played against NL Central opponents. They begin a series against the Reds in Pittsburgh on Monday.

The Marlins beat the Mariners again, and either Seattle looked better than they are against the AL West opponents or the Marlins are better than I thought they were. The Marlins offense has been surprisingly potent so far this year.

I took a break.

Games Notes, Brewers at Pirates

More game notes MIL @ PIT 4/17/14

Series previews from a Pirates blog ( Raise the Jolly Roger) and a Brewers blog (Disciples of Ueker).

Lineups

Milwaukee Brewers

1.CF: Carlos Gomez

2.SS: Jean Segura

3.RF: Ryan Braun

4.3B: Aramis Ramirez

5.C: Jonathan Lucroy

6.LF: Khris Davis

7.1B: Mark Reynolds

8.2B: Scooter Gennett

9.SP: Yovani Gallardo

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

1.LF: Starling Marte

2.C: Russell Martin

3.CF: Andrew McCutchen

4.3B: Pedro Alvarez

5.2B: Neil Walker

6.1B: Gaby Sanchez

7.RF: Travis Snider

8.SS: Jordy Mercer

9.SP: Edinson Volquez

Single by Gomez on the first pitch. The Brewers swing at lots of first pitches, the Pirates announcers tell me, and they don’t strike out a lot. Probably avoiding First Pitch Strikes.

Segura sacrificed.

Braun came up with one out and Gomez on second to a chorus of boos. Strange play: Braun grounded sharply back to the mound, and Volquez had Gomez caught off second. Gomez sustained the rundown until Braun reached, returned to the bag safely, which made Braun out,  runner on second with two out and Aramis Ramirez at the plate. The Pirates should have executed the rundown, gotten Gomez out, and had a runner on first with two out. Instead, Ramirez ripped a single to center, Gomez easily scored from second and the Brewers jumped out to a 1-0 lead.

The Pirates’ announcing crew keeps talking about how the Brewers love to hit First Pitch Strikes. Perhaps they would be the team to avoid throwing them against, but the reason they are effective is because they are outlier, a team the does not try to work deeply into counts, their success with approach kind of dependent on the fact that other teams do work deeply in counts and thus pitchers can take advantage of that tendency by throwing first pitch strikes.

[Update: Curt Hogg of Disciples of Ueker wrote a good piece, “Taking a Look at the Brewers Aggressive Offensive Approach.” You should read it. He has cool charts showing that the Brewers are swinging at everything early in counts. This prevents pesky 1-0 and 0-1 counts from occurring.]

Indeed, a quick search shows the Brewers have the third-highest Swing % in the Majors so far this season. Looking at the spreadsheet I made earlier today, I found they see 3.64 pitches per plate appearance, which sits dead least in Major League Baseball, 1.88 standard deviations below the mean of 3.87. Not quite as the Twins are in the other direction, but significantly and notably below average.

Vogquez went 3-1 on Lucroy, who drew a walk–he is one of the Brewers who takes walks but only at a slightly above league-average rate. This brought young left fielder Khris Davis to the plate with two out and runners at first and second. Only 14 pitches thrown by Volquez to that point–two outs, two on, one run in, fourteen pitches. No deep counts. Davis grounded into a forceout. Wow. the Cardinals are already up 3-0 on the Nationals.

Marte looks lost at the plate like he did against Cincinnati, but he manages to draw a walk. I almost wet myself in surprise.

Martin lined out.

McCutchen came up with Marte on first and one out. Marte stole second on a 0-1 count. McCutchen took Gallardo deep. Pirates lead 2-1.

Gallardo’s location slightly off, but he starts to sharpen up facing Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, to whom he throws some ungodly breaking stuff.

 

Top 2, Piratts 2 Brewers 1

Pirates shift left for Mark Reynolds with second baseman Walker to the left side of second. They use more shifts than anyone else in the NL, second only in all of baseball to the Kings of the Shift, the Tampa Bay Rays. I love the fact the Pirates are imitating the Rays. Aside from the Packers ownership model, I think the Rays should be the most emulated franchise in sports–smart, smart, smart. See also, Jonah Keri’s excellent The Extra 2%.

With one out, Brewer second baseman Scooter Gennett shoots a sharp liner to left that almost elude Marte. Gennett was held to single, but against most lumbering leftfielders, that goes for two.

This brings Gallardo to the plate, who is quite a good hitter for a pitcher. He makes as if he’ll bunt, making the Pirates announcers happy as he has hit 4 HR against Pirate pitching in the past (he is also a career .206 hitter). Gallardo executes the sacrifice, Two out, runner on second, Carlos Gomez at the plate.

Carlos Gomez is really coming into his own. Repeated articles on major sports media websites have recently touted his emergence. Volquez starts with slider on the outer half. Gomez, showing great improvement since his days as a Twin, makes contact with it but rolls it to shortstop, and the Pirates escape the inning without harm.

Bottom 2

Sanchez leading off. Gallardo fell behind 3-1, his fastball high. But Sanchez did him a favor on an inside fastball off the plate, skying one for an out down the third-base line.

Travis Snider dealt a cutter inside that he pulled to Reynolds at first, who made the play unassisted. Two out.

Mercer, shortstop, took fastball on the inside corner for strike one. Hitting only .171, Mercer must have a hell of a glove. He falls behind 0-2 watching a slider on the outer corner. At 0-2, Gallardo went off thep late with the slider for a bll, then came back with another one that Mercer couldn’t resist, and down he went on strikes.

Top 3

Voquez gets ahead of Segura then throws him a ball before Segura grounds up up the middle, Walker making a nice play on a high chopper over the mound.

Braun hits a a first-pitch breaking ball on the outer half off the wall in right, beating the Snider’s throw to second base for a one-out double. (I wonder how much closer that play at second would have been if Gregory Polonco had been playing right.)

Aramis Ramirez again at the plate with one out and Braun on second. At 1-1, Volquez throws Ramirez the same pitch he threw Braun, but Ramirez doesn’t wait on it, and he rolls over it and grounds out toe left side, Braun holding at second.

Lucroy comes up with two out and Braun at second. Lucroy takes ball one. He’s already seen more pitches tonight that large stretches of the Brewers lineup have collectively. At 2-0, Volquez throws a fastball on the inner corner that Lucroy squares up for a basehit to center past a diving Mercer. Braun scores easily, and the game tied.

Volquez made Khris Davis look bad on two swings at sliders that clearly fooled him. But Davis must have recognized the third, which Volquez hung on the outer half. Davis lined it the right of second base. Because the Pirates had the far left shift on for Davis, Walker could not make the play to his left, and Davis collected a single that sent Lucroy to third. A mound visit ensued.

Mark Reynolds stepped up with runners at the corner. He glowered and Volquez fidgeted. Volquez bounced a slider to fall behind 1-0, but Reynolds bailed him out, popping up to Martin behind the plate.

Bottom 3

Brewers already have 6 hits against Volquez.

[Food Break]

My GameDay App told me the Pirates went downin order.

 

Top 4

Gomez comes up none one two out, but only two out because Snider made a nice play on a sinking liner off Gallardo’s bat. Gomez skied a flyball to left that Marte hauled in. Going bottom 4 still tied at 2.

Bottom 4

Shift on for Alvarez. He watches two pitches go by, 1-1. He hits the next pitch a long way down the left field line but foul. He then stroked a basehit to left bringing Walker to the plate, runner on first and none out.

Walker had a big series against the Reds, but he looked pretty out of sorts in his first plate appearance. He takes strike one and kicks at the dirt. He fouls off the next offering, falling behind 0-2. He fouls off another. Gallardo bounces a breaking pitch, Alvarez advances, Walker at 1-2. Walker then ground to first, moving Alvarez to third.

Runner on third, one out, Sanchez at the plate. Gallardo mixes pitches nicely and strikes him out rather coolly, bringing Snider to the plate with two out. He stikes out.

Mercer grounds out.

Top 5

Segura grounds out.

Volquez strikes out Braun swinging, for his first strikeout of the night.

He’s now retired 6 in a row. Steve Blass suggests he may have “found a groove.”

And Volquez induces weak contact from Ramirez, who grounds out on a tapper in front of the mound fielded by the catcher, Russell Martin.

Bottom 5

Halfway through tonight’s action, Brewers with 2 runs, 6 hits and no errors. The Pirates with 2 runs, 3 hits and no errors.

Volquez leads off for the Pirates.

Volquez watches two pitches and gets ahead 2-0. Gallardo throws a strike that Volquez turns away from. Taking all the way. Strike two catches the bottom of the zone. Volquez pops one up foul on the first-base side, and Mark Reynolds makes a nice catch, running into the railing and reaching into foul ground to record the out. Nice job by Reynolds, never known for his work in the field.

Marte takes a strike one slider. At 2-1, Marte popped up a low fastball into shallow right field where second baseman Scooter Gennett made the play.

Martin took strike one. Ahead 1-2, Gallardo came inside with a fastaball that Martin fouled off. Then a looping slider low and away. At 2-2 he again came inside and Martin again fouled it off. Good at bat for both of these guys. High and away by Gallardo resulted in a full count. Gallardo high and tight fastball that barely missed off the inside corner, Martin draws a well-earned walk. But the Pirate broadcasters don’t really notice that.

McCutchen sees a first pitch slider he hits in the air to right. Braun catches it. On to the top of the sixth.

Top 6

This has been a relatively well-pitched ballgame. Volquez had to work out of trouble early but settled in. Gallardo has been very good but for the mistake McCutchen hit out.

Lucroy-Davis-Reynolds to bat in the top of the sixth.

Lucroy spanks the first pitch he sees to left for a hit. Sharply hit again. It was not a terrible pitch. It was a strike but on the inside edge. Lucroy is just dialed in right now.

One on, no out,

Khris Davis. He takes ball one. (*Sigh*) Lucroy runs on the next pitch, a strike, and Martin’s throw beats the runner. So, Khris Davis, none on, one out. (At this point I’d like to express dismay over that decision to send the runner given what it does for Brewer run expectancy., That just took the Brewers’ run expectancy for the inning from .8074 to .2553, which, I gotta’ say, is a big favor to the Pirates; had he been safe their run expectancy would only have risen to .9936.) On the other hand, Roenicke must be playing for a one-run game, confident if he scores his bullpen will lock down the Pirates. It’s been good so far for the Brewers, but it isn’t the bottom of the ninth inning. You never know how many runs you’ll need in order to win.

Davis crushes a pitch to left, but the wind is coming in slightly from left and left field is enormous in Pittsburgh and the ball hangs in the wind for Starling Marte to collect.

Reynolds. He just made a nice play in the field. You know what they say. Volquez falls behind but gets a big swing and a miss to even it at 1-1. Reynolds fouls that fastball off to the right. A changeup off of the plate inside induces another swing and miss from Reynolds and the side is retired. No runs scored.

Bottom 6

Alvarez leads off for the Pirates, and he works to a 3-2 count. On his one hundredth pitch, Gallordo misses and walks Alvarez.

Walker flies out to left.

One out, one on, Sanchez to hit. Gallardo scheduled to bat second in the top half of the inning. Someone up in the Brewer pen. Gallardo throws first pitch cut fastball for a strike. Sanchez fouls the next pitch off to the right. 0-2. Gallardo at 104 pitches. Wipeout slider wipes Sanchez out.

Travis Snider. Runner at first, two out. The count runs to 3-2. Snider kills all suspense by tapping a dribbler in front of the mound, and Gallardo throws him out.

Top 7

Gennett singles to lead off the 7^th.

Volquez has still only thrown 69 pitches at this point! Buy he falls behind 1-0 to the pinch hitter Logan Schafer, who is batting for Gallardo. Schaefer bunts the next pitch foul. And once again it is evident Roenicke is playing for a one-run game. He again shows bunt at 1-2 but it’s a ball and the count evens. And then Schafer bunts foul, striking out and handing the Pirates a gift.

So, one out, one on, Carlos Gomez steps in. Volquez begins with a pitchout, but no one is going anywhere, and it is now 1-0. Gennett running on the pitch and again Martin throws out a would-be Brewer basestealer. So two out, none on, Another favor from Ron Roenicke, who suddenly doesn’t trust his batters to push across runs conventionally but is trying one-run tactic after one-run tactic.

Gomex flies out to right center, where Snider makes the catch.

Volquez 7 IP 2 ER.

The Stretch

Bottom 7

Volquez likely done as he is due up second in this half-inning.

Rob Wooten in for the Brewers. He only has 2/3 IP so far in 2014, promoted only 4 days ago from AAA Nashville.

Mercer strokes a 1-0 pitch for a line drive single.

Runner on first, none out. The pinch hitter for Volquez is Josh Harrison. He attempts to bunt, and I wonder what the hell is going on with these managers. Harrison fouls off the first pitch in the air. The Pirates’ announcers are lamenting that the Pirates haven’t sacrifice bunted much, being only tied for 9^th in the NL. Strike two evens the count after many throws to first to check the runner. Harrison swings away at 2-2, and he pulls one into the seats in left just inside the foul pole. Two-run homerun. Pirates lead 4-2.

Screw one-run strategies in situation where only scoring one run doesn’t automatically win you the game.

Marte bats. He fouls off two pitches and falls behind 1-2. He puts the next pitch into play, a swinging bunt down the third-base line, and Marte reaches base safely on the infield hit..

Marte goes on a 1-2 pitch, and Lucroy throws the ball into centerfield. Marte to third on Lucroy’s error.

The infield plays in, but Wooten can’t find the strike zone and Martin walks.

Andrew McCutchen. None out, runners on the corners. McCutchen hits grounder to third, Marte hesitatd at third, but the double play could not be turned, and Marte scored. McCutchen safe at first on the fielder’s choice.

Pirates caught a break.

Brewers change pitchers.

Pirates lead 5-2.

Alvarez to bat next with a runner on first and one out.

Wooten’s performance is the worst by a Brewers’ pitcher in the four games the teams have played so far this season. The front edge of the Brewers ‘pen looked vulnerable.

Former Pirate lefty Zach Duke enters the game for the Brewers to face Alvarez. Alvarez walks, putting runners on first and second.

Neil Walker bats right-handed, his worse side by far. At 1-1. Duke throws a breaking ball, and the Pirates attempt a double steal! Alvarez thrown out at second, the Pirates challenge. This is big, runner on third with two out versus runners on second and third and one out (.3244 vs, 1.2522). The fans at PNC have seen a replay and are yelling “Safe! Safe! Safe!”

The umpires return, saying “Out!” (And he was, but just barely.)

So, runner on third, two out, Walker strikes out looking.

Top 8

Pirates 5 Brewers 2

Melancon in to pitch for the Pirates.

Melancon retires Segura on strikes, and induces Braun to fly out. He gets ahead of Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez flies out to Marte in left.

Bottom 8

[This gets ugly.]

Wei-Chung Wang, former Pirate minor leaguer, enters the game for the Brewers. Sanchez leads off, and he crushes the 0-1 off the left field foul pole and the Pirates lead 6-2.

Snider flies out to deep center. One out.

Mercer singles.

Jose Tabata pinch hits. Pirates have 17 HR in last 9 games. Unsustainable HR/FB rate? Probably. Tabata crushes one to right-center. He thinks its going out so he struts, but it drifts father to right and hits the taller right-field wall. He doubles and Mercer scurries home to score the seventh Pirate run.

Marte flairs one to short center. There are now runners at first and third with one out and the pitching coach and interpreter come out to check on Wang.

Martin spanks the first pitch to left. Tabata scores. Runners on first and second and one out. 8-2 Pirates.

This part of the Brewer bullpen—their left-handers—does not look that good.

McCutchen pops out to the catcher, Lucroy.

Wang is showing a lively 94 mph fastball despite his difficulties. Left-handed heat at that.

Alvarez falls behind 0-2, but then he unleashes a massive opposite-field blast to put the Pirates up it 11-2.

Walker grounds out.

Top of 9

Bryan Morris in to pitch for PIT.

Lucroy lined one to right that had a chance to drop in but Snider made a nice sliding catch. One down.

Davis flies to right.

Reynolds grounds out to third. Game over.

It started competitive, but the second- and third-tier lefties in the Brewers ‘pen just could not prevent baserunners and scoring.

The Importance of First-Pitch Strikes

I decided to find out how important getting ahead of hitters actually is, so I did a study of first pitch strikes compared to first pitch balls.

Bill Feber‘s The Book on the Book got me thinking about this. Felber did a 5000 pitcher/batter interaction study of results in various pitch counts. Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post cited Felber’s study in an article about watching baseball while paying more attention to the count, since the count can tell you a lot of things. Boswell focuses on 1 ball 1 strike counts and what results, since 1-2 is a lot different for both pitchers and batters than is 2-1.

However, my focus is just on what happens after that first pitch. That is, what are the results after a 1-0 count compared to the results after an 0-1 count. In short, how important is the First Pitch Strike?

Now, I started to do this study, the really, really hard way. I looked at MLB Gameday for every individual game and began recording results in Microsoft Excel. One day’s games did me in. Too much tedium. Instead, on a lark, I visited Baseball Reference.com and I found this: tabulated data for every pitch count and what happens after reaching a particular pitch count. By parsing this data I was able to find out how results differed between 1-0 counts and  0-1 counts.

First of all, the overall data for 2010 revealed that hitters go .262/.333/.406 with a wOBA of .346. Walks result in 9% of plate appearances, and 18.27% of plate appearances ended with strikeouts, which gives us a walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) of 0.49.

In plate appearances that are determined by one (the first) pitch, batters did really well: .345/.350/.555 (AVG/OBP/SLG, also called the “slash line“). (Note also that the OBP is higher than the AVG because some batters manage to get hit by pitches) Batters have a wOBA of .413  and an OPS of .905 in these plate appearances. Obviously there is no BB/K ratio since a batter can neither walk nor strike out in one pitch.

After 1-0 counts, first pitch balls, hitters produced the following statistical line: .273/.391/.436, a wOBA of .389, and an OPS of .827. The walk rate was 15.91% and the strikeout rate was 14.47%, producing a BB/K ratio of 1.10.

After 0-1 counts, first pitch strikes, hitters produced at the following rates: .228/.272/.348, with a collective (and woeful) wOBA of .294, with a similarly woeful OPS of .620. The walk rate for these batters was 4.92% and their strikeout rate was 25.67%. The BB/K ratio for these batters was 0.19 (yes, 0.19).

Now, let us assume that every time a plate appearance  resolves on the first pitch that the pitch is a strike. This is an obviously untrue assumption since (a) HBP’s don’t happen on strikes, and (b) hitters such as Pablo Sandoval swing at first pitches that are not in the strike zone. But let’s make that assumption for the moment; after all, if the plate appearance resolves in one pitch, the batter almost always has swung at the pitch, and, presumably, batters attempt to swing only at pitches in the strike zone, that is, pitches which are strikes.

If we combine the data from one-pitch plate appearances, which are very good for hitters, with the data from plate appearances that resolve after 0-1 counts (first pitch strikes), we still see that hitters performed less well than they did  following 1-0 counts. The combined data from one-pitch plate appearances and those following 0-1 counts indicates a collective hitter slash line of .250/.286/.387, with a wOBA of .315 and an OPS of .673. Look at the OBP! .286? That is terrible, even  for a backup utility infielder; a .270 OBP constitutes the “Mendoza line” of OBP or it should, at any rate. By contrast, following  1-0 counts, hitters’ OBP figure is .391. Looking further at the first pitch strike data,  we find a  walk rate of  4.02% and a strikeout rate is 21.02%, which creates a BB/K rate of 0.19.

2010 data is as follows:

Total Data shows us 63,516 AB, 16,458 Hits, .259 AVG/.330 OBP/.406 SLG, .346 wOBA, .736 OPS, 9.00% BB rate, 18.27% K rate, 0.49 BB/K.

First Pitch Resolution comes up great for hitters with 7283 AB, 2515 Hits, .345 AVG/.350 OBP/.555 SLG, .413 wOBA, .905 OPS, and nonexistent BB and K rates and a nonexistent BB/K ratio.

First Pitch Balls create the following results: 24.637 AB, 6,735 Hits, .273 AVG/.381 OBP/.436 SLG, .389 wOBA, .827 OPS, with 15.91% BB rate and 14.47 K rate, for a BB/K ratio of 1.10.

First Pitch Strikes are followed by these results: 31,596 AB, 7208 Hits, .228 AVG/.272 OBP/.348 SLG, .294 wOBA, .620 OPS, with a 4.92% BB rate and 25.67 K rate, for a BB/K ratio of 0.19.

Combining the results for First Pitch Resolution with that of First Pitch Strikes gives us the following numbers: 38,879 AB, 9123 Hits, .250 AVG/.286 OBP/.387 SLG, .315 wOBA, .673 OPS, a walk rate of 4.02% and a K rate of 21.01%, for a BB/K ratio of 0.19 (which is a K/BB ratio of 5+!).

Thus even if your pitchers are giving up all that good stuff to hitters on plate appearances resolved on one pitch, even then, it appears that first pitch strikes are simply awesome for the pitching team. The on-base percentage differential is huge (.286 vs. .391 when the count goes 1-0) and attributable to the incredibly lower proportion of walks that your pitching allows.

2010 data is no aberration. After accumulating the information back through the 2006 season, it proves remarkably consistent.

In plate appearances resolved on the first pitch: .341/.346/.552, .409 wOBA, .898 OPS.

In plate appearances begun with a First Pitch Ball (resolved after a 1-0 count): .279/.394/.456, .396 wOBA, .805 OPS, 15.91% BB, 14.47% K, 1.12 BB/K.

In plate appearances begun with a First Pitch Strike (resolved after a 0-1 count): .236/.279/.361, .301 wOBA, .637 OPS, 4.92% BB, 25.67% K, 0.19 BB/K.

In plate appearances either resolved in one pitch or begun with a First Pitch Strike: .257/.292/.399, .332 wOBA, .684 OPS, 3.88% BB, 20.17 % K, 0.19 BB/K.

The walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) is the most, er, striking thing. After 1-0 counts, batters walk more often than they strikeout, while after 0-1 counts batters walk less than a fifth of the time they strikeout. That is a huge, huge difference. (Maybe it’s not the actual bases on balls that give managers their gray hairs; maybe it’s the first pitch balls that given them those gray hairs, as they spend the rest of the plate appearance envisioning the walks and other bad things that will follow.)

The conclusion is simply put: It pays to throw First Pitch Strikes.

Even though are going to have some guys get on base or hit bombs because they are first pitch swinging, the on-base percentage difference between plate appearances starting with first pitch balls (.394) and those that don’t (.292) is simply huge. This represents a lot of runs saved in plate appearances that don’t start with balls.

In fact, if you look at the summarized data from 2006 to 2010, you will see that the on-base percentage in First Pitch Strike plate appearances (.279) is about the same as the batting average in First Pitch Ball plate appearances, and the OBP in First Pitch Ball plate appearances is a “robust” .394, which is All-Star-quality good (or bad, from the pitcher’s perspective). Runners simply do not get on base much after a First Pitch Strike.

An additional thing to consider is that many plate appearances that are resolved after one pitch are swings that occur when the batter thinks he’s gotten “his pitch,” that is when the pitch is in the location where the batter is looking for a pitch to hit. This means that those first pitch swings  resolve plate appearances often happen when the batter thinks he has the best chance of doing something with the pitch. I can’t quantify how often this happens, but I can point out that batters are said to approach the first pitch in such a way.

Results obviously vary from batter to batter. After all, some guys don’t mind hitting with two strikes (Joey Votto, we are looking at you). Others mess up in 3-1 situations. But, as a general rule, the First Pitch Strike seems to be the best pitch to throw.

On the other hand, James Shields’ 2010 provides perhaps the most obvious counterexample/counterargument to what I’ve said, but still…the numbers are pretty conclusive.

Are you interested in more reading about first-pitch strikes? If so, here are links to some of the more competent writing about the topic.

First-pitch strikes are so important, that FanGraphs tracks it. You can find the MLB leaderboard here. Note that the MLB average is ~59%. (I should do a study with an IP minimum, establishing the standard deviation and then listing pitchers from top to bottom so we can see where they lie along the spectrum. Included should be K%, BB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP. Then we could test linkages between F-Strike% and other peripherals and see if we can predict peripherals on the basis of first-pitch results. That’s what I should do, but I am terrible at following through.)

Considered from a coaching standpoint by Jack Dunn, a youth coach. So a general theoretical discussion of inducing more pitchers to throw first-pitch strikes.

Brian Oakchunas of Baseball Prospectus makes an extremely data-driven argument, as always, and they conclude that extreme strike-throwers are more successful pitchers than others, so you might as well throw strikes. At a minimum, first-pitch strikes move the “peripherals” (K/9, BB/9, ERA) in the “right” direction (higher, lower, lower).

Additional coaching considerations on first-pitch strikes motivate Phil Tognetti to consider the mindsets of both hitters and pitchers, which, when combined with data, leads to the conclusion that pitchers should generally work to get ahead of the hitter on the first pitch.

When Craig Burley, writing for The Hardball Times, did his study in 2004, he found that fewer than 8% of first-pitch strikes turn into base hits. Once again, then, it pays to throw them. Also, even if the spread between the slugging percentage and batting average on the first-pitch strikes put into play is higher than the spread between them on other pitches put into play, they happen at a low enough rate, and, remember, generate a sufficiently low on-base percentage, to make throwing them worth it.

Peter Ellwood uses OPS to make his point, rather than the more elegant, comprehensive, and accurate wOBA, but he makes exactly the same point I made above (which makes me happy…confirmation-bias considerations aside).

The Rockies pitching rotation sucked in 2012, and while there are other factors explaining that, it is no coincidence its’ members also threw the lowest percentage of first-pitch strikes in the major leagues.

Remember that study I said I should do to determine the relationship between first-pitch strikes and other peripheral measures of pitching performance? Well, writer natstats over at Federal Baseball did a version of that study and provided a nice visual aid.

Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, discussed the problem in 2011 in terms of the Pirates pitching staff. Note that Charlie Morton got off to a great start in 2011. Note, however, he isn’t great, and thus not the poster boy for my proposition I wish he could be. (Confession: We here at Twisting Blade Productions cheer for the Pirates, though we also like the Twins, are developing a fondness for the Mariners, have a crush on the Rays out of sheer respect for their organizational competence, and are intrigued by the Diamondbacks’ front-office maneuvers of this last off-season.)

The Flagrant Fan (that’s a good blog title) nicely provides data from 2001 through 2012. It illustrates a negative correlation between F-Strike% and OPS, which is expected. (Of course, correlation is not causation, through the underlying mechanics explained by game theory–the mindsets of pitcher and batter–demonstrate an at least theoretical structural linkage; if we could quantify the degree to which batter and pitcher mindset factor into the outcome we would be better off on establishing causation.)

First-Pitch Strikes

Throwing first-pitch strikes benefits pitchers. An old essay, but the links are worth examining. Contrary arguments invited.