League Standings and What’s Up With the Cubs’ Rotation?

I decided to look at the league standings without regard to divisions. They way the standings kind of looked before 1969 and the advent of the Divisional Era. This is what they look like. What they show is that despite what the Wild Card Standings say, there really are some horrid teams out there. particularly in the American League because of the mediocrity “parity” that prevails therein. And how did the Tampa Bay Rays end up with the worst record in the American League? And how are the Arizona Diamondbacks this awful?   How is it that Cubs are so darn awful, yet their starting pitching leads all of Major League baseball in WAR. I don’t know the answer to any of those questions, but they still let me handle a keyboard.

American League	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	RD	Last 10	ESPN Playoff Odds*
OAK	35	22	.614	—	296	181	+115	5-5	98.1
TOR	34	24	.586	1.5	291	252	+39	8-2	77.1
DET	31	22	.585	2	240	223	+17	4-6	66.0
LAA	30	26	.536	4.5	267	237	+30	4-6	48.9
NYA	29	26	.527	5	230	245	-15	5-5	23.5
BAL	28	27	.509	6	234	240	-6	5-5	23.1
TEX	29	28	.590	6	238	261	-23	6-4	15.5
CHA	29	29	.500	6.5	265	277	-12	6-4	20.2
SEA	28	28	.500	6.5	228	215	+13	5-5	34.4
BOS	27	29	.482	7.5	231	237	-6	7-3	27.2
MIN	26	28	.481	7.5	230	249	-19	3-7	21.9
CLE	27	30	.474	8	248	267	-19	5-5	24.5
KCR	28	30	.464	8.5	213	236	-23	3-7	10.7
HOU	24	34	.414	11.5	216	261	-45	7-3	3.6
TBR	23	34	.404	12	217	255	-38	4-6	8.2

*Supplied by FanGraphs.

 

National League	W	L	PCT	GB	RS	RA	RD	Last 10	ESPN Playoff Odds*
SFG	37	20	.649	—	249	190	+59	8-2	92.9
MIL	34	23	.596	3	240	216	+24	6-4	70.0
ATL	31	25	.554	5.5	194	183	+11	5-5	52.9
STL	30	27	.526	7	218	205	+13	4-6	48.9
LAD	30	28	.517	7.5	250	264	+14	5-5	39.6
MIA	28	28	.500	8.5	255	238	+17	5-5	33.6
COL	28	28	.500	8.5	281	258	+28	2-8	47.7
WAS	27	28	.491	9	222	208	+14	3-7	37.2
NYN	27	29	.482	9.5	222	226	-4	6-4	23.7
CIN	28	29	.473	10	192	203	-11	5-5	17.7
PIT	26	30	.464	10.5	212	244	-32	6-4	8.9
SDP	26	31	.456	11	184	210	-26	5-5	10.8
PHI	24	30	.444	11.5	214	246	-32	4-6	7.1
ARI	23	36	.390	15	227	292	-65	5-5	1.0
CHN	20	34	.370	15.5	207	225	-18	4-6	7.9

*Supplied by FanGraphs.

 So, what is up with the Cubs rotation?

Well, the deal is they don’t give up home runs. None of them has a homerun to flyball rate of greater than 8.6%. Now, I don’t know if the wind has just been blowing in at Wrigley all season so far, but that is extraordinary, and it is the lowest rate in the Major Leagues. Insane.

They also have a very good K/BB ratio (3.05), sixth in baseball.

The other weird thing is they have actually been getting unlucky stranding baserunners, with a below-average LOB% (69.4% compared to a league average rate around 72.0%). So, while Jason Hammel and to a lesser degree Jeff Samardzija are due for some BABIP regression, the Cubs rotation should not get significant worse until they start trading away its component parts. And Samardzija is due for some regression to his strand rate.

Here’s the current rotation:

	GS	IP	BB%	K%	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	xFIP
Samardzija	11	75.0	7.0	21.3	.267	79.7	51.0	5.2%	3.28
Hammel	11	71.1	5.5	22.7	.225	74.6	40.0	6.5%	3.53
Jackson	11	63.2	8.8	22.3	.343	66.4	40.9	7.1%	3.56
Wood	11	64.2	7.3	20.3	.311	63.7	39.3	8.6%	4.06
Arrieta	5	25.1	9.0	23.4	.365	76.5	52.7	5.6%	3.12

These are mostly flyball pitchers, not giving up homeruns in Wrigley. That’ s just astonishing.

Samardizija should generate trade interest from several teams. Rampant speculation already links a Samardzija trade to the Marlins, the Giants, the Blue Jays, it’s an exciting, evolving mix, although he just had his worst start on Sunday.

Hammel has been pitching like an ace.

Arrieta has developed into a reliable rotation piece.

The Cubs offense and starting pitching, it turns out, are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Thirty seconds on FanGraphs showed me the Cubs have been terrible with the bats, with the fifth-lowest wOBA (.296), and the lowest wRC+ (80) in baseball.

Return to the Eighties?

One of my good friends texted out last Sunday, which a bunch of good pitching performances, that it was like it was the 1980s all over again in baseball. Kind of, I think, but with better uniforms and, thankfully, a lot less artificial turn.

Well, one thing we know for sure is that ERAs are down in Major League Baseball. As per Buster Olney on Friday:

At the start of play today, there are nine different pitchers with an ERA better than 2.00, and there are 39 pitchers with ERAs under 3.00. At the end of the last full season, in 2013, there were 14 pitchers with ERAs of 3.00 or better.

The Run-Scoring Environment has changed greatly over the last fifteen years, and that top deserves a more thorough treatment at some point in the future.

Pelfrey Bounced from Rotation? (UPDATED)

“Twins sound ready to dump Mike Pelfrey from rotation.”

Gosh, I hope so, especially after this afternoon’s debacle.

Jesse at Twinkie Town discusses the possible rotation alteration and reminds us why re-signing the guy made so much of the fanbase  throw up its hands in disgust and agony. One year was punishment enough for Twins fans; but two years shows an almost gleefully capricious regard for the tender feelings of its fans. Oh, and guaranteed money is a bitch.

This is what I had written before Pelfrey’s start today, but was late in getting back to editing:

Mike Pelfrey awful

His game log should make you wince (those xFIPs!).

Daniel Rathman of Baseball Prospectus rubs further salt in the Twins front office’s well-deserved lacerations over re-singing the guy for a guaranteed second year:

When setting your pitching probables for a doubleheader, it’s nice to have at least one innings chewer at your disposal. Unfortunately for Twins manager Ron Gardenhire, his starters for today’s twin bill against the Dodgers are wild cards—at best.

Mike Pelfrey, who is on tap for the matinee, hasn’t recorded more than 16 outs in any of his four starts this year. To make matters worse, the right-hander is sporting a 7.32 ERA—and he’s been fortunate to do even that poorly, because 15 walks and five homers allowed in 19 2/3 innings have spiked his FIP to 8.20. Pelfrey’s K:BB ratio over his last two assignments: 2-to-8 (1:10 p.m. ET).

Here is direct link to Aaron Gleeman’s December comments on the re-signing. It’s worth reading because you can almost hear him sputtering about the absurdity of it all.

Harang Harangued; Wednesday Night’s Disappointing Start in Miami

I couldn’t resist the terrible wordplay, but maybe we ought rather to think of Harang as a poster boy for “regression to the mean, in the short-term and in regards to a very small sample size.”

He had been completely dominant for the Braves this April, starting the season with five consecutive starts in which he allowed no more than one run. His early season performance forced the largest upward revision of 2014 projected performance of any starting pitcher.

What a comeback, right?

It couldn’t last. Baseball Prospectus author Ben Lindbergh wrote over a week ago what would inevitably happen:

In his late 20s, Harang had more vertical movement and superb command and control, which made his always average-at-best repertoire play up. Without that knack for putting his pitches where he wants them, he’s hittable, unless luck is on his side. So far, it has been. Harang owes much of his success to the usual accomplices of a small-sample standout: a .208 BABIP and an 89.3 percent strand rate (league average is just over 70 percent). With runners in scoring position, batters have hit .105 and slugged .158 against him, with a .167 BABIP. It hasn’t hurt that he’s faced the Mets twice, either.

And while he baffled the Marlins on the 23^rd, whiffing 11 over six 6 IP (45.8 K%), he fooled few against them last night.

It just wasn’t sustainable. He would have had to have been perfect for his performance to improve. Regression was inevitable, a question of “when” rather than “if.” And that’s all there is to it. It’s not a feeling that a certain outcome is “due,” it’s the certainty that probability-defying phenomena can only sustain such defiance for a finite period. It’s not magic, it’s the opposite of magic, it’s the nature of things. Common sense.

His homerun per flyball rate (HR/FB) regressed most last night; it had been 0.0 previously in 2014, as opposed to a career rate of 10.4%. It will probably regress still further.

Don’t get me wrong; I think it’s a great comeback story, but the best anyone could hope for was a return to his form with the Reds circa 2007, not that he would be Ton Seaver or Curt Schilling or Felix Hernandez.

Would I rather the Twins had him in their rotation than Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia? You bet. Would I want them to sign him for King Felix money? Uh, no.

 

Wednesday Night’s Action Rehashed without Hash

Well, you can have hash if you like, but you must bring your own *sound effect*.

Four more postponements tonight—Mets and Phillies, Pirates and Orioles, Mariners and Yankees, Rays and Red Sox, meaning three doubleheaders tomorrow (in Minnesota, Baltimore and Boston):

Max Scherzer Tigers shut down White Sox, 5-1.

Cardinals bats awaken, beat down Brewers, 9-3.

Angels ride Wilson, sweep Indians with 7-1 win; Indians end disastrous West Coast trip.

Marlins throttle Braves behind Eovaldi’s strong start, 9-3.

Cubs, Rizzo ambush Reds, win 9-4.

Athletics again demolish Rangers, 12-1, sweeping them away in little bits of rubble. Rangers starting pitchers had a 14.76 ERA for the series.

Alcides Escobar rallies [paywalled] Royals late as they down the Blue Jays, 4-2. Royals shortstop, with a career wOBA of .282 but having a career year so far with a wOBA of .340, delivers extra-base hit in high-leverage seventh-inning plate appearance (.279 WPA), leading ballclub to victory.

Rendon, Zimmerman fuel Nationals 7-0 rout of Astros. Rendon enjoyed the visit.

Dodgers’ bats warm in the cold () air, as they collect franchise’s 10,000^th win, holding off the Twins to win 6-4. Greinke pitched well again.

Hudson fires gem, Giants beat Padres 3-2.

Sneaky Snakes: Montero, Diamondbacks walk off against Rockies 5-4 in extras.

 

Viewing Notes 4/22, Reds @ Pirates

Cueto and Volquez pitching tonight.

Volquez, the Pirates best starter so far, gets Hamilton looking on a pitch that looked off the plate. And then the strike zone changes on the third pitch to Votto, flies to left caught at the edge track but that would probably left the Great American Smallpark. Phillips grounds up the middle, Mercer makes a nice pickup, and then Ike Davis mades a nice play to field Mercer’s spinning throw, which sailed towards home plate. Davis’s foot came off the bag, but the umpire ruled Phillips out, and the Reds did not challenge the play.

Cueto pitching. The “Ceuto, Cueto” chant starts up, but it is a mere shadow of the chanting during the NL Wild Card game last October. Marte Ks  on 5 pitches. Walker grounds out on the first pitch. McCutchen drops a soft liner to right. Cueto had retired fifteen Pirate batters in a row extending back to his last start. Alvarez grounds up the middle where Cozart fields it and steps on second.

Volquez Ks Bruce on a check swing. He then hits Frazier. Ludwick bats. FPS, and he hits a hard two-hopper to Alvarez’s left that Pedro picks, throwing to second for a fielder’s choice. Backup catcher Brayan Pena—Mesoraco’s body must need the rest because his bat sure doesn’t—grounds to Alvarez, and Pedro makes his second consecutive sound defensive play.

Cueto walks Martin. Ike Davis—who must like Pittsburgh since, as the Pirates’ 4/22 game notes tell me he has 5 hits in 13 at bats as a Pirate, with a double, a home run, and hits in all three games—grounds to Votto, who gets the forceout at seond, Davis to first on the fielders’ choice. Snider, sporting a mighty shiner from Sunday’s brawl, bats with one out and one on, and he lines a base-hit to center, advancing Davis to second. Mercer taps to the shortstop, whose only play was at first, advancing the runners. Two out, runners at second and third, and pitcher Edinbson Volquez bats. Swinging hard and making incidental contact, tapping it out to Phillips, who has to make a good throw because Volquez tears down the line and makes it close.

Cozart pops out to catcher. Cueto bounces back to the mound. Hamilton gets ahead 2-0, then Hamilton lines a base-hit to center. So, Votto will bat with Hamilton trying to do that thing he does. Martin threw out Hamilton trying to steal when the Reds and Pirates played in Cincinnati last week. This time, Hamilton runs on the 1-2 pitch, a slider in the dirt, and Martin doesn’t even bother to throw. Votto now batting with a runner at second and two out with a two-strike count, and he draws ball three on yet another pitch whose location seems to have eluded the home plate umpire; with the count full, Votto grounds out to Davis.

Top of the Pirate lineup. Marte grounds out to short. Walker flies out to left. McCutchen bats, and Cueto touches 95 with his fastball before McCutchen lines one up the middle that Phillips fields on a hop, retiring McCutchen with a throw to first.

Phillips pops out to third. Bruce grounsd out into the shift, Alvarez to Davis. Frazier flies out to center. Volquez completes the inning on 8 pitches.

Alvarez lifts a high flyball that Bill Hamilton catches in left-center. Martin strikes out looking. Martin stops to chat about it with the ump, who does not respond well. Davis bounces to second, and Phillips throws to Votto to retire the side.

Still scoreless in Pittsburgh, and these teams, who combined for 10 HR in a wild game eight days ago, have only 3 hits between the, so far. I suppose it would be fairer to comment that the pitching has been pretty sharp in this game so far.

Top 5, and Ryan Ludwick bats for CIN; he strikes out swinging on three pitches. Pena bats from the left side and faces the shift; he bunts the first pitch foul, then bunts the second one foul, then  fouls off 3 more, then grounds out to Alvarez, positioned at straight-away shortstop.  LOL. Cozart grounds deep into the hole past a diving Alvarez, and Mercer makes a backhanded play punctuated by a leaping throw to just barely nip Cozart at first.

Bottom half, and the starters are cruising. Cueto, fans Travis Snider, who chases high heat, on three pitches.  Mercer pops out to short. Volquez swings with abandon again, getting behind 0-2 and then strikes out. Eight pitch inning for Cueto.

Volquez pitches. Cueto bunts up the first base line, but Davis gloves it and makes the tag. Eight straight retired for Volquez. Hamilton flies to center. Fifty-five of Volquez’s 78 pitches have been strikes. Votto bats with two out and none on, and he draws a walk. Phillips bats. grounding the first pitch to Alvarez, who throws to second for the force out. Inning over. No runs, no hits, no errors, one left.

Bottom 6 in a pretty good pitcher’s duel. Cueto has retired 11 in a row. Top of the Pirate lineup. Marte bunts but Frazier, edging in at third, he fields it and throws him out. (Possible challenge as Votto “bobbled” at first, but the Pirates leave well enough alone.)  Walker grounds out to Votto, Cueto covering first. McCutchen  draws a two-out walk. But Alvarez flies out just short of the track in left.

Bruce leads off with a single up the middle. Frazier follows with another groundball that gets through the infield up the middle. None out, two on. Ludwick hits it in the air to right where Snider catches it; Bruce tags up and moves to third. Pena bats, but with runners at the corners, the Pirates do not put on the shift, and Pena lines one through the right side of the infield, scoring Ludwick and sending Frazier to third; Pena advances to second, where he is called safe but a challenge follows as it appeared Pena may have come off the bag while Walker applied the tag. After a review, the umpires reverse the call, calling Pena out at second, and the Reds have a runner at third and two out with Cozart at the plate. Cozart lines it down the left-field line past Alvarez, scoring the run on a double. Cueto bats for himself, with the Reds up 2-0 and Cueto only having thrown 75 pitches. After having only collected 1 hit on the evening through 6 innings, the Red put four hits together in the seventh. Cueto bounces to short ending the inning.

After the Stretch, the Pirates bat, trailing 2-0. Martin flies out to the track in center field. Davis hits a soft liner to the left side that reaches Frazier on a big hop; Frazier fields it and fires over to Votto for the out. Snider then sharply grounds to Cozart. The inning ends after 7 Johnny Cueto pitches, who has now complete his sixteenth consecutive scoreless inning against the Pirates in the last six days. The Pirates have managed just 5 hits in those 13 innings.

Top of 8. Top of the Reds order. The lefty Watson on to pitch for PIT. Hamilton battles and then lines a single to left. Votto lines a single to right, Hamilton advancing to third. First and third, none out, Phillips batting; the Reds second baseman strikes out swinging. Bruce bangs a single to right, scoring Hamilton, and there are Reds at first and second with one out. Hurdle executes a double switch, bringing in Stolmy Pimento to pitch and Jose Tabata to take the #9 spot in the lineup and play rightfield. Frazier flies out to right with Votto advancing to third. Heisey, batting for Ludwick, pops out to Walker ending the inning, but not before the Reds scored another run. They lead 3-0.

Bottom 8 with Mercer, Tabata, and Marte scheduled to hit for the Pirates. Mercer reaches on an error by Frazier. Tabata bats, and he grounds promptly into a double play, 4-6-3. Two out. Marte bats, and while a few fans try to mock Cueto, it turns out he is mocking them, for Marte grounds out, and the eighth inning ends.

Top 9. Brayan Pena bats, the shift is on, and he tries to bunt towards third on the first pitch, but he pushes it foul; he tries it again with the same result; finally, he grounds one off of Pimentel, the pitcher, who throws in the dirt, where Davis couldn’t scoop it, and Pena was safe at first on the error.  A botched hit-and-run did not result in an out when second-baseman Walker could not handle the throw, and though Pena slid short of the bag, he ended up safe. So, runner on second with none out. Cozart taps to the first base side of the mound, advancing the runner to third on the play. One out, runner at third, Cueto batting for himself, and he collects an RBI single to right. Red 4 Pirates 0. The Reds, held to 1 hit through six innings, now have 10 for the night. Hamilton strikes out looking. Two out. Votto fouls off several offerings and then takes a called strike three.

Bottom of the ninth, Reds up four runs, Johnny Cueto pitching, in pursuit of a second consecutive shutout of the Pirates. Walker, McCutchen, and Alvarez to bat. Walker lines out to center. McCutchen sees an FPS and then breaks up the shutout with an opposite-field homerun.

Alvarez grounds out 3-1. Votto to Cueto covering. Russell Martin bats with two out in the ninth, and Cueto’s fastball still touches 94; Martin runs the count rull and then draws a walk. The strike zone follies continue, as the second-to-the-last pitch to Martin was pretty strike-y looking. Barmes enters the game to run for Martin. Davis bats, and he works the count full, fouling off several pitches, before flying out to left and ending the game.

Another fine performance for Johnny Cueto.

Games Notes, Brewers at Pirates

More game notes MIL @ PIT 4/17/14

Series previews from a Pirates blog ( Raise the Jolly Roger) and a Brewers blog (Disciples of Ueker).

Lineups

Milwaukee Brewers

1.CF: Carlos Gomez

2.SS: Jean Segura

3.RF: Ryan Braun

4.3B: Aramis Ramirez

5.C: Jonathan Lucroy

6.LF: Khris Davis

7.1B: Mark Reynolds

8.2B: Scooter Gennett

9.SP: Yovani Gallardo

 

Pittsburgh Pirates

1.LF: Starling Marte

2.C: Russell Martin

3.CF: Andrew McCutchen

4.3B: Pedro Alvarez

5.2B: Neil Walker

6.1B: Gaby Sanchez

7.RF: Travis Snider

8.SS: Jordy Mercer

9.SP: Edinson Volquez

Single by Gomez on the first pitch. The Brewers swing at lots of first pitches, the Pirates announcers tell me, and they don’t strike out a lot. Probably avoiding First Pitch Strikes.

Segura sacrificed.

Braun came up with one out and Gomez on second to a chorus of boos. Strange play: Braun grounded sharply back to the mound, and Volquez had Gomez caught off second. Gomez sustained the rundown until Braun reached, returned to the bag safely, which made Braun out,  runner on second with two out and Aramis Ramirez at the plate. The Pirates should have executed the rundown, gotten Gomez out, and had a runner on first with two out. Instead, Ramirez ripped a single to center, Gomez easily scored from second and the Brewers jumped out to a 1-0 lead.

The Pirates’ announcing crew keeps talking about how the Brewers love to hit First Pitch Strikes. Perhaps they would be the team to avoid throwing them against, but the reason they are effective is because they are outlier, a team the does not try to work deeply into counts, their success with approach kind of dependent on the fact that other teams do work deeply in counts and thus pitchers can take advantage of that tendency by throwing first pitch strikes.

[Update: Curt Hogg of Disciples of Ueker wrote a good piece, “Taking a Look at the Brewers Aggressive Offensive Approach.” You should read it. He has cool charts showing that the Brewers are swinging at everything early in counts. This prevents pesky 1-0 and 0-1 counts from occurring.]

Indeed, a quick search shows the Brewers have the third-highest Swing % in the Majors so far this season. Looking at the spreadsheet I made earlier today, I found they see 3.64 pitches per plate appearance, which sits dead least in Major League Baseball, 1.88 standard deviations below the mean of 3.87. Not quite as the Twins are in the other direction, but significantly and notably below average.

Vogquez went 3-1 on Lucroy, who drew a walk–he is one of the Brewers who takes walks but only at a slightly above league-average rate. This brought young left fielder Khris Davis to the plate with two out and runners at first and second. Only 14 pitches thrown by Volquez to that point–two outs, two on, one run in, fourteen pitches. No deep counts. Davis grounded into a forceout. Wow. the Cardinals are already up 3-0 on the Nationals.

Marte looks lost at the plate like he did against Cincinnati, but he manages to draw a walk. I almost wet myself in surprise.

Martin lined out.

McCutchen came up with Marte on first and one out. Marte stole second on a 0-1 count. McCutchen took Gallardo deep. Pirates lead 2-1.

Gallardo’s location slightly off, but he starts to sharpen up facing Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker, to whom he throws some ungodly breaking stuff.

 

Top 2, Piratts 2 Brewers 1

Pirates shift left for Mark Reynolds with second baseman Walker to the left side of second. They use more shifts than anyone else in the NL, second only in all of baseball to the Kings of the Shift, the Tampa Bay Rays. I love the fact the Pirates are imitating the Rays. Aside from the Packers ownership model, I think the Rays should be the most emulated franchise in sports–smart, smart, smart. See also, Jonah Keri’s excellent The Extra 2%.

With one out, Brewer second baseman Scooter Gennett shoots a sharp liner to left that almost elude Marte. Gennett was held to single, but against most lumbering leftfielders, that goes for two.

This brings Gallardo to the plate, who is quite a good hitter for a pitcher. He makes as if he’ll bunt, making the Pirates announcers happy as he has hit 4 HR against Pirate pitching in the past (he is also a career .206 hitter). Gallardo executes the sacrifice, Two out, runner on second, Carlos Gomez at the plate.

Carlos Gomez is really coming into his own. Repeated articles on major sports media websites have recently touted his emergence. Volquez starts with slider on the outer half. Gomez, showing great improvement since his days as a Twin, makes contact with it but rolls it to shortstop, and the Pirates escape the inning without harm.

Bottom 2

Sanchez leading off. Gallardo fell behind 3-1, his fastball high. But Sanchez did him a favor on an inside fastball off the plate, skying one for an out down the third-base line.

Travis Snider dealt a cutter inside that he pulled to Reynolds at first, who made the play unassisted. Two out.

Mercer, shortstop, took fastball on the inside corner for strike one. Hitting only .171, Mercer must have a hell of a glove. He falls behind 0-2 watching a slider on the outer corner. At 0-2, Gallardo went off thep late with the slider for a bll, then came back with another one that Mercer couldn’t resist, and down he went on strikes.

Top 3

Voquez gets ahead of Segura then throws him a ball before Segura grounds up up the middle, Walker making a nice play on a high chopper over the mound.

Braun hits a a first-pitch breaking ball on the outer half off the wall in right, beating the Snider’s throw to second base for a one-out double. (I wonder how much closer that play at second would have been if Gregory Polonco had been playing right.)

Aramis Ramirez again at the plate with one out and Braun on second. At 1-1, Volquez throws Ramirez the same pitch he threw Braun, but Ramirez doesn’t wait on it, and he rolls over it and grounds out toe left side, Braun holding at second.

Lucroy comes up with two out and Braun at second. Lucroy takes ball one. He’s already seen more pitches tonight that large stretches of the Brewers lineup have collectively. At 2-0, Volquez throws a fastball on the inner corner that Lucroy squares up for a basehit to center past a diving Mercer. Braun scores easily, and the game tied.

Volquez made Khris Davis look bad on two swings at sliders that clearly fooled him. But Davis must have recognized the third, which Volquez hung on the outer half. Davis lined it the right of second base. Because the Pirates had the far left shift on for Davis, Walker could not make the play to his left, and Davis collected a single that sent Lucroy to third. A mound visit ensued.

Mark Reynolds stepped up with runners at the corner. He glowered and Volquez fidgeted. Volquez bounced a slider to fall behind 1-0, but Reynolds bailed him out, popping up to Martin behind the plate.

Bottom 3

Brewers already have 6 hits against Volquez.

[Food Break]

My GameDay App told me the Pirates went downin order.

 

Top 4

Gomez comes up none one two out, but only two out because Snider made a nice play on a sinking liner off Gallardo’s bat. Gomez skied a flyball to left that Marte hauled in. Going bottom 4 still tied at 2.

Bottom 4

Shift on for Alvarez. He watches two pitches go by, 1-1. He hits the next pitch a long way down the left field line but foul. He then stroked a basehit to left bringing Walker to the plate, runner on first and none out.

Walker had a big series against the Reds, but he looked pretty out of sorts in his first plate appearance. He takes strike one and kicks at the dirt. He fouls off the next offering, falling behind 0-2. He fouls off another. Gallardo bounces a breaking pitch, Alvarez advances, Walker at 1-2. Walker then ground to first, moving Alvarez to third.

Runner on third, one out, Sanchez at the plate. Gallardo mixes pitches nicely and strikes him out rather coolly, bringing Snider to the plate with two out. He stikes out.

Mercer grounds out.

Top 5

Segura grounds out.

Volquez strikes out Braun swinging, for his first strikeout of the night.

He’s now retired 6 in a row. Steve Blass suggests he may have “found a groove.”

And Volquez induces weak contact from Ramirez, who grounds out on a tapper in front of the mound fielded by the catcher, Russell Martin.

Bottom 5

Halfway through tonight’s action, Brewers with 2 runs, 6 hits and no errors. The Pirates with 2 runs, 3 hits and no errors.

Volquez leads off for the Pirates.

Volquez watches two pitches and gets ahead 2-0. Gallardo throws a strike that Volquez turns away from. Taking all the way. Strike two catches the bottom of the zone. Volquez pops one up foul on the first-base side, and Mark Reynolds makes a nice catch, running into the railing and reaching into foul ground to record the out. Nice job by Reynolds, never known for his work in the field.

Marte takes a strike one slider. At 2-1, Marte popped up a low fastball into shallow right field where second baseman Scooter Gennett made the play.

Martin took strike one. Ahead 1-2, Gallardo came inside with a fastaball that Martin fouled off. Then a looping slider low and away. At 2-2 he again came inside and Martin again fouled it off. Good at bat for both of these guys. High and away by Gallardo resulted in a full count. Gallardo high and tight fastball that barely missed off the inside corner, Martin draws a well-earned walk. But the Pirate broadcasters don’t really notice that.

McCutchen sees a first pitch slider he hits in the air to right. Braun catches it. On to the top of the sixth.

Top 6

This has been a relatively well-pitched ballgame. Volquez had to work out of trouble early but settled in. Gallardo has been very good but for the mistake McCutchen hit out.

Lucroy-Davis-Reynolds to bat in the top of the sixth.

Lucroy spanks the first pitch he sees to left for a hit. Sharply hit again. It was not a terrible pitch. It was a strike but on the inside edge. Lucroy is just dialed in right now.

One on, no out,

Khris Davis. He takes ball one. (*Sigh*) Lucroy runs on the next pitch, a strike, and Martin’s throw beats the runner. So, Khris Davis, none on, one out. (At this point I’d like to express dismay over that decision to send the runner given what it does for Brewer run expectancy., That just took the Brewers’ run expectancy for the inning from .8074 to .2553, which, I gotta’ say, is a big favor to the Pirates; had he been safe their run expectancy would only have risen to .9936.) On the other hand, Roenicke must be playing for a one-run game, confident if he scores his bullpen will lock down the Pirates. It’s been good so far for the Brewers, but it isn’t the bottom of the ninth inning. You never know how many runs you’ll need in order to win.

Davis crushes a pitch to left, but the wind is coming in slightly from left and left field is enormous in Pittsburgh and the ball hangs in the wind for Starling Marte to collect.

Reynolds. He just made a nice play in the field. You know what they say. Volquez falls behind but gets a big swing and a miss to even it at 1-1. Reynolds fouls that fastball off to the right. A changeup off of the plate inside induces another swing and miss from Reynolds and the side is retired. No runs scored.

Bottom 6

Alvarez leads off for the Pirates, and he works to a 3-2 count. On his one hundredth pitch, Gallordo misses and walks Alvarez.

Walker flies out to left.

One out, one on, Sanchez to hit. Gallardo scheduled to bat second in the top half of the inning. Someone up in the Brewer pen. Gallardo throws first pitch cut fastball for a strike. Sanchez fouls the next pitch off to the right. 0-2. Gallardo at 104 pitches. Wipeout slider wipes Sanchez out.

Travis Snider. Runner at first, two out. The count runs to 3-2. Snider kills all suspense by tapping a dribbler in front of the mound, and Gallardo throws him out.

Top 7

Gennett singles to lead off the 7^th.

Volquez has still only thrown 69 pitches at this point! Buy he falls behind 1-0 to the pinch hitter Logan Schafer, who is batting for Gallardo. Schaefer bunts the next pitch foul. And once again it is evident Roenicke is playing for a one-run game. He again shows bunt at 1-2 but it’s a ball and the count evens. And then Schafer bunts foul, striking out and handing the Pirates a gift.

So, one out, one on, Carlos Gomez steps in. Volquez begins with a pitchout, but no one is going anywhere, and it is now 1-0. Gennett running on the pitch and again Martin throws out a would-be Brewer basestealer. So two out, none on, Another favor from Ron Roenicke, who suddenly doesn’t trust his batters to push across runs conventionally but is trying one-run tactic after one-run tactic.

Gomex flies out to right center, where Snider makes the catch.

Volquez 7 IP 2 ER.

The Stretch

Bottom 7

Volquez likely done as he is due up second in this half-inning.

Rob Wooten in for the Brewers. He only has 2/3 IP so far in 2014, promoted only 4 days ago from AAA Nashville.

Mercer strokes a 1-0 pitch for a line drive single.

Runner on first, none out. The pinch hitter for Volquez is Josh Harrison. He attempts to bunt, and I wonder what the hell is going on with these managers. Harrison fouls off the first pitch in the air. The Pirates’ announcers are lamenting that the Pirates haven’t sacrifice bunted much, being only tied for 9^th in the NL. Strike two evens the count after many throws to first to check the runner. Harrison swings away at 2-2, and he pulls one into the seats in left just inside the foul pole. Two-run homerun. Pirates lead 4-2.

Screw one-run strategies in situation where only scoring one run doesn’t automatically win you the game.

Marte bats. He fouls off two pitches and falls behind 1-2. He puts the next pitch into play, a swinging bunt down the third-base line, and Marte reaches base safely on the infield hit..

Marte goes on a 1-2 pitch, and Lucroy throws the ball into centerfield. Marte to third on Lucroy’s error.

The infield plays in, but Wooten can’t find the strike zone and Martin walks.

Andrew McCutchen. None out, runners on the corners. McCutchen hits grounder to third, Marte hesitatd at third, but the double play could not be turned, and Marte scored. McCutchen safe at first on the fielder’s choice.

Pirates caught a break.

Brewers change pitchers.

Pirates lead 5-2.

Alvarez to bat next with a runner on first and one out.

Wooten’s performance is the worst by a Brewers’ pitcher in the four games the teams have played so far this season. The front edge of the Brewers ‘pen looked vulnerable.

Former Pirate lefty Zach Duke enters the game for the Brewers to face Alvarez. Alvarez walks, putting runners on first and second.

Neil Walker bats right-handed, his worse side by far. At 1-1. Duke throws a breaking ball, and the Pirates attempt a double steal! Alvarez thrown out at second, the Pirates challenge. This is big, runner on third with two out versus runners on second and third and one out (.3244 vs, 1.2522). The fans at PNC have seen a replay and are yelling “Safe! Safe! Safe!”

The umpires return, saying “Out!” (And he was, but just barely.)

So, runner on third, two out, Walker strikes out looking.

Top 8

Pirates 5 Brewers 2

Melancon in to pitch for the Pirates.

Melancon retires Segura on strikes, and induces Braun to fly out. He gets ahead of Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez flies out to Marte in left.

Bottom 8

[This gets ugly.]

Wei-Chung Wang, former Pirate minor leaguer, enters the game for the Brewers. Sanchez leads off, and he crushes the 0-1 off the left field foul pole and the Pirates lead 6-2.

Snider flies out to deep center. One out.

Mercer singles.

Jose Tabata pinch hits. Pirates have 17 HR in last 9 games. Unsustainable HR/FB rate? Probably. Tabata crushes one to right-center. He thinks its going out so he struts, but it drifts father to right and hits the taller right-field wall. He doubles and Mercer scurries home to score the seventh Pirate run.

Marte flairs one to short center. There are now runners at first and third with one out and the pitching coach and interpreter come out to check on Wang.

Martin spanks the first pitch to left. Tabata scores. Runners on first and second and one out. 8-2 Pirates.

This part of the Brewer bullpen—their left-handers—does not look that good.

McCutchen pops out to the catcher, Lucroy.

Wang is showing a lively 94 mph fastball despite his difficulties. Left-handed heat at that.

Alvarez falls behind 0-2, but then he unleashes a massive opposite-field blast to put the Pirates up it 11-2.

Walker grounds out.

Top of 9

Bryan Morris in to pitch for PIT.

Lucroy lined one to right that had a chance to drop in but Snider made a nice sliding catch. One down.

Davis flies to right.

Reynolds grounds out to third. Game over.

It started competitive, but the second- and third-tier lefties in the Brewers ‘pen just could not prevent baserunners and scoring.

National League Central Notes

First up, check out this really useful write-up of news around the National League Central, provided by Red Leg Nation, a Cincinnati Reds blog. It looks as if “Central Intelligence” is a regular feature at this blog, and I sure appreciate it.

Well, there are three games currently underway involving the NL Central: Pirates at Reds, Cardinals at Brewers, and Cubs at Yankees.

I don’t have much to say about the Cubs today, the game scheduled for Tuesday went unplayed due to inclement weather. The Cubs and Yankees are playing a double-header today. A series preview CHN @ NYA can be found here. Josh Timmers of “Bleeding Cubbie Blue,” a pretty decent Cubs blog, has some fun with “small sample-size extrapolations” of Cubs performances thus far; some of it is encouraging for fans of the North-Siders, some not so much. His most positive takeaway?

As a team, the Cubs are on-pace to commit 94 errors. That’s tied for the fewest since 2004 and only the fourth time in a non-strike shortened season that the Cubs made fewer than 100 errors.

The Cardinals’ pitching has simply dominated the Brewers in the first two games of their series, stopping the Crew’s winning streak at nine in the first game and again shutting Milwaukee down in game two. (A two-day old preview of the series from a St. Louis perspective available here.)

Cardinals manager Mike Matheny remains the subject of scrutiny among the fanbase, some asking if he knows what he is doing, with specific focus on his potential overuse of the back end of his bullpen, Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal. There are indications Rosenthal’s velocity is down.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Rick Hummel thinks the Brewers’ hot start has a different feel to it this time, though he makes very few arguments supporting his contention, turning instead to the impressions of Kyle Lohse and Matt Carpenter. Instead, it falls to generally great columnist Bernie Miklasz to actually make the case; Miklasz cites four reasons: (1) the rotation, (2) the bullpen, (3) a lineup stocked with power (deep and potent, like I said), (4) Carlos Gomez, (5) speed and defense.

As for the Brewers, their bats have gone somewhat limp against the Cardinals, though the Cardinals’ great pitching depth has quite a bit to do with that.

Although written before the start of their series with St. Louis, two posts by Steve Garczynski regarding what the Crew needs to do to keep winning are worth looking at.

Part one focuses on Brewers’ batters drawing more walks as well as manager Ned Yost challenging more bad calls. The problem here is that (1) Brewers’ batters have never shown a propensity to draw many bases on balls. While plate discipline can be learned at the Major League level, that usually manifests on a case-by-case (i.e., individual) basis, not across entire lineups; additionally, much of the power the Brewers’ bats demonstrate stems from their batters being aggressive on fastballs early in counts. The second problem is that the whole “when the hell should we challenge bad calls” thing is bedeviling every manager, not merely Ned Yost Ron Roenicke.

Part two points to Tyler Thornburg’s dominance as a reliever. Yup, no doubt about it, Thornburg has been far better out of the ‘pen than he has ever shown in a rotation spot. Of course, small sample size warnings apply, as that K% of 36.7 is almost certainly going to decline.

Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are completing their series as I write, with Johnny Cueto simply dealing and Francisco Liriano struggling with his command.

Cueto’s 2014 has so far been a demonstration of how stupid unhelpful evaluating starting pitchers on the basis of “Wins” really proves to be. Cueto is without a win to his credit as play started today, but he has been pretty good, thought not as good as his surface stats seem to indicate (look at that HR/FB rate!).

So far, Cincinnati’s offense has been, er, offensive in a bad way, one of the reasons Cueto has no “wins” despite providing quality innings of work. But it has been getting better, showing up in time to prevent a sweep at the hands of the Rays. Devin Mesoraco has been on fire since entering the lineup after beginning the season on the DL. Joey Votto’s power is possibly returning. And Jay Bruce might yet emerge as an MVP candidate.

As for the Pirates, they pounded out a bunch of homeruns on Monday to start a game that was suspended and which they won on Tuesday. Watch some video of the ten (10!) homeruns hit in that game. This surprises a bit, as one of the areas in which the Pirates are suspect is the consistency of their offense. After all, the Brewers simply shut it down during their weekend sweep of Pittsburgh. However, there may be reason for hope: (1) Pedro Alvarez is performing better than he has in previous Aprils, (2) Edinson Volquez is providing reason(s) to believe the Pirates had not lost their minds in signing him despite his, uh, troubles in 2013 (you know, an ERA > 6).

Because I can’t wait to see this guy in the Majors, I just had to include a link to some video of Gregory Polonco, the Pirates’ outfield prospect currently enjoying his feast on Triple-A pitching at Indianapolis. Yes, that is a .466/.511/.744 slash line he is putting up as of 4/16/14.

 

UPDATE–Cueto shut out the Pirates on 3 hits, striking out a career-high 12 as the Reds won game three of their series with Pittsburgh 4-0. Only one of the Pirate hits reached the outfield. So he finally has a “win.” His first four starts have been pretty effective: 30 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 35 K, 5 ER, 3 HR, 1.50 ERA, 0.800 WHIP, 2.97 FIP (homerun rate still a bit high due to huge HR/FB rate).

Brewers lead the Cardinals 4-1 entering the bottom of the seventh inning. Wily Peralta outlasted Joe Kelly, who left this game after four innings, having allowed only 1 earned run; he injured his left hamstring attempting to beat out a bunt.

Cubs trail the Yankees 3-0 in the bottom of the eighth of the first game of their doubleheader.

UPDATED UPDATE–Yankees shut out the Cubs 3-0 behind 8 strong innings from Masahiro Tanaka. Another game to follow.

Brewers take the final game of their series with the Cardinals 5-1.

 

The Importance of First-Pitch Strikes

I decided to find out how important getting ahead of hitters actually is, so I did a study of first pitch strikes compared to first pitch balls.

Bill Feber‘s The Book on the Book got me thinking about this. Felber did a 5000 pitcher/batter interaction study of results in various pitch counts. Thomas Boswell of The Washington Post cited Felber’s study in an article about watching baseball while paying more attention to the count, since the count can tell you a lot of things. Boswell focuses on 1 ball 1 strike counts and what results, since 1-2 is a lot different for both pitchers and batters than is 2-1.

However, my focus is just on what happens after that first pitch. That is, what are the results after a 1-0 count compared to the results after an 0-1 count. In short, how important is the First Pitch Strike?

Now, I started to do this study, the really, really hard way. I looked at MLB Gameday for every individual game and began recording results in Microsoft Excel. One day’s games did me in. Too much tedium. Instead, on a lark, I visited Baseball Reference.com and I found this: tabulated data for every pitch count and what happens after reaching a particular pitch count. By parsing this data I was able to find out how results differed between 1-0 counts and  0-1 counts.

First of all, the overall data for 2010 revealed that hitters go .262/.333/.406 with a wOBA of .346. Walks result in 9% of plate appearances, and 18.27% of plate appearances ended with strikeouts, which gives us a walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) of 0.49.

In plate appearances that are determined by one (the first) pitch, batters did really well: .345/.350/.555 (AVG/OBP/SLG, also called the “slash line“). (Note also that the OBP is higher than the AVG because some batters manage to get hit by pitches) Batters have a wOBA of .413  and an OPS of .905 in these plate appearances. Obviously there is no BB/K ratio since a batter can neither walk nor strike out in one pitch.

After 1-0 counts, first pitch balls, hitters produced the following statistical line: .273/.391/.436, a wOBA of .389, and an OPS of .827. The walk rate was 15.91% and the strikeout rate was 14.47%, producing a BB/K ratio of 1.10.

After 0-1 counts, first pitch strikes, hitters produced at the following rates: .228/.272/.348, with a collective (and woeful) wOBA of .294, with a similarly woeful OPS of .620. The walk rate for these batters was 4.92% and their strikeout rate was 25.67%. The BB/K ratio for these batters was 0.19 (yes, 0.19).

Now, let us assume that every time a plate appearance  resolves on the first pitch that the pitch is a strike. This is an obviously untrue assumption since (a) HBP’s don’t happen on strikes, and (b) hitters such as Pablo Sandoval swing at first pitches that are not in the strike zone. But let’s make that assumption for the moment; after all, if the plate appearance resolves in one pitch, the batter almost always has swung at the pitch, and, presumably, batters attempt to swing only at pitches in the strike zone, that is, pitches which are strikes.

If we combine the data from one-pitch plate appearances, which are very good for hitters, with the data from plate appearances that resolve after 0-1 counts (first pitch strikes), we still see that hitters performed less well than they did  following 1-0 counts. The combined data from one-pitch plate appearances and those following 0-1 counts indicates a collective hitter slash line of .250/.286/.387, with a wOBA of .315 and an OPS of .673. Look at the OBP! .286? That is terrible, even  for a backup utility infielder; a .270 OBP constitutes the “Mendoza line” of OBP or it should, at any rate. By contrast, following  1-0 counts, hitters’ OBP figure is .391. Looking further at the first pitch strike data,  we find a  walk rate of  4.02% and a strikeout rate is 21.02%, which creates a BB/K rate of 0.19.

2010 data is as follows:

Total Data shows us 63,516 AB, 16,458 Hits, .259 AVG/.330 OBP/.406 SLG, .346 wOBA, .736 OPS, 9.00% BB rate, 18.27% K rate, 0.49 BB/K.

First Pitch Resolution comes up great for hitters with 7283 AB, 2515 Hits, .345 AVG/.350 OBP/.555 SLG, .413 wOBA, .905 OPS, and nonexistent BB and K rates and a nonexistent BB/K ratio.

First Pitch Balls create the following results: 24.637 AB, 6,735 Hits, .273 AVG/.381 OBP/.436 SLG, .389 wOBA, .827 OPS, with 15.91% BB rate and 14.47 K rate, for a BB/K ratio of 1.10.

First Pitch Strikes are followed by these results: 31,596 AB, 7208 Hits, .228 AVG/.272 OBP/.348 SLG, .294 wOBA, .620 OPS, with a 4.92% BB rate and 25.67 K rate, for a BB/K ratio of 0.19.

Combining the results for First Pitch Resolution with that of First Pitch Strikes gives us the following numbers: 38,879 AB, 9123 Hits, .250 AVG/.286 OBP/.387 SLG, .315 wOBA, .673 OPS, a walk rate of 4.02% and a K rate of 21.01%, for a BB/K ratio of 0.19 (which is a K/BB ratio of 5+!).

Thus even if your pitchers are giving up all that good stuff to hitters on plate appearances resolved on one pitch, even then, it appears that first pitch strikes are simply awesome for the pitching team. The on-base percentage differential is huge (.286 vs. .391 when the count goes 1-0) and attributable to the incredibly lower proportion of walks that your pitching allows.

2010 data is no aberration. After accumulating the information back through the 2006 season, it proves remarkably consistent.

In plate appearances resolved on the first pitch: .341/.346/.552, .409 wOBA, .898 OPS.

In plate appearances begun with a First Pitch Ball (resolved after a 1-0 count): .279/.394/.456, .396 wOBA, .805 OPS, 15.91% BB, 14.47% K, 1.12 BB/K.

In plate appearances begun with a First Pitch Strike (resolved after a 0-1 count): .236/.279/.361, .301 wOBA, .637 OPS, 4.92% BB, 25.67% K, 0.19 BB/K.

In plate appearances either resolved in one pitch or begun with a First Pitch Strike: .257/.292/.399, .332 wOBA, .684 OPS, 3.88% BB, 20.17 % K, 0.19 BB/K.

The walk to strikeout ratio (BB/K) is the most, er, striking thing. After 1-0 counts, batters walk more often than they strikeout, while after 0-1 counts batters walk less than a fifth of the time they strikeout. That is a huge, huge difference. (Maybe it’s not the actual bases on balls that give managers their gray hairs; maybe it’s the first pitch balls that given them those gray hairs, as they spend the rest of the plate appearance envisioning the walks and other bad things that will follow.)

The conclusion is simply put: It pays to throw First Pitch Strikes.

Even though are going to have some guys get on base or hit bombs because they are first pitch swinging, the on-base percentage difference between plate appearances starting with first pitch balls (.394) and those that don’t (.292) is simply huge. This represents a lot of runs saved in plate appearances that don’t start with balls.

In fact, if you look at the summarized data from 2006 to 2010, you will see that the on-base percentage in First Pitch Strike plate appearances (.279) is about the same as the batting average in First Pitch Ball plate appearances, and the OBP in First Pitch Ball plate appearances is a “robust” .394, which is All-Star-quality good (or bad, from the pitcher’s perspective). Runners simply do not get on base much after a First Pitch Strike.

An additional thing to consider is that many plate appearances that are resolved after one pitch are swings that occur when the batter thinks he’s gotten “his pitch,” that is when the pitch is in the location where the batter is looking for a pitch to hit. This means that those first pitch swings  resolve plate appearances often happen when the batter thinks he has the best chance of doing something with the pitch. I can’t quantify how often this happens, but I can point out that batters are said to approach the first pitch in such a way.

Results obviously vary from batter to batter. After all, some guys don’t mind hitting with two strikes (Joey Votto, we are looking at you). Others mess up in 3-1 situations. But, as a general rule, the First Pitch Strike seems to be the best pitch to throw.

On the other hand, James Shields’ 2010 provides perhaps the most obvious counterexample/counterargument to what I’ve said, but still…the numbers are pretty conclusive.

Are you interested in more reading about first-pitch strikes? If so, here are links to some of the more competent writing about the topic.

First-pitch strikes are so important, that FanGraphs tracks it. You can find the MLB leaderboard here. Note that the MLB average is ~59%. (I should do a study with an IP minimum, establishing the standard deviation and then listing pitchers from top to bottom so we can see where they lie along the spectrum. Included should be K%, BB%, ERA, FIP, xFIP. Then we could test linkages between F-Strike% and other peripherals and see if we can predict peripherals on the basis of first-pitch results. That’s what I should do, but I am terrible at following through.)

Considered from a coaching standpoint by Jack Dunn, a youth coach. So a general theoretical discussion of inducing more pitchers to throw first-pitch strikes.

Brian Oakchunas of Baseball Prospectus makes an extremely data-driven argument, as always, and they conclude that extreme strike-throwers are more successful pitchers than others, so you might as well throw strikes. At a minimum, first-pitch strikes move the “peripherals” (K/9, BB/9, ERA) in the “right” direction (higher, lower, lower).

Additional coaching considerations on first-pitch strikes motivate Phil Tognetti to consider the mindsets of both hitters and pitchers, which, when combined with data, leads to the conclusion that pitchers should generally work to get ahead of the hitter on the first pitch.

When Craig Burley, writing for The Hardball Times, did his study in 2004, he found that fewer than 8% of first-pitch strikes turn into base hits. Once again, then, it pays to throw them. Also, even if the spread between the slugging percentage and batting average on the first-pitch strikes put into play is higher than the spread between them on other pitches put into play, they happen at a low enough rate, and, remember, generate a sufficiently low on-base percentage, to make throwing them worth it.

Peter Ellwood uses OPS to make his point, rather than the more elegant, comprehensive, and accurate wOBA, but he makes exactly the same point I made above (which makes me happy…confirmation-bias considerations aside).

The Rockies pitching rotation sucked in 2012, and while there are other factors explaining that, it is no coincidence its’ members also threw the lowest percentage of first-pitch strikes in the major leagues.

Remember that study I said I should do to determine the relationship between first-pitch strikes and other peripheral measures of pitching performance? Well, writer natstats over at Federal Baseball did a version of that study and provided a nice visual aid.

Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, discussed the problem in 2011 in terms of the Pirates pitching staff. Note that Charlie Morton got off to a great start in 2011. Note, however, he isn’t great, and thus not the poster boy for my proposition I wish he could be. (Confession: We here at Twisting Blade Productions cheer for the Pirates, though we also like the Twins, are developing a fondness for the Mariners, have a crush on the Rays out of sheer respect for their organizational competence, and are intrigued by the Diamondbacks’ front-office maneuvers of this last off-season.)

The Flagrant Fan (that’s a good blog title) nicely provides data from 2001 through 2012. It illustrates a negative correlation between F-Strike% and OPS, which is expected. (Of course, correlation is not causation, through the underlying mechanics explained by game theory–the mindsets of pitcher and batter–demonstrate an at least theoretical structural linkage; if we could quantify the degree to which batter and pitcher mindset factor into the outcome we would be better off on establishing causation.)

Further Reading on Milwaukee’s Hot Start

Dave Schoenfield of ESPN’s “SweetSpot” blog writes today that the Brewers are “hitting all the right notes.”

And Jay Jaffe at “The Strike Zone,” Sports Illustrated’s baseball blog, focuses on Carlos Gomez.

Shoenfield points out the pre-season projections:

The Fangraphs projected standings believed Milwaukee to be a .500 team at 81-81. The PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus had the club one game worse than Fangraphs at 80-82.

He credits the rotation for the Crew’s early season success:

The success begins with the pitching staff. Heading into play Friday night, Milwaukee pitchers had a league-best 1.95 team ERA and had held opposing batters to a .205 batting average. The starting pitchers had a collective 2.44 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .227 batting average. Wily Peraltawent seven innings in the victory Friday, marking the seventh time in 10 contests this season that a Brewers pitcher worked at least six complete innings in a start. Last season, Milwaukee was in the bottom third of baseball in that area as starters worked at least six innings just 93 of 162 times.

And then he points out how actually good the bullpen has been rather than focusing, as I foolishly did, on how they look “on paper” compared to, say, the Pirates and the Cardinals.

The bullpen has been even more amazing as that group now has a 0.91 ERA with the two shutdown innings provided Friday by Jim Henderson and Rodriguez. The bullpen has permitted just three earned runs in 29⅔ innings of work.

Shoenfield also answers my “where the hell is Jim Henderson” question by pointing out that the Brewers had some concern with Henderson’s velocity coming out of spring. And he rightly points out that despite my ignorance of who those guys are, the two relievers setting up for Henderson and Rodriguez, Will Smith and Tyler Thornburg have been great:

The duo has combined to face 50 batters; 11 have reached base, one has scored and 17 have struck out.

And the lineup thumps:

The top six spots of the Brewers lineup have also not been an easy matchup for opposing pitchers. The red-hot Gomez has set the table, while the equally hot Aramis Ramirez andJonathan Lucroy have cleaned it up. Only the Colorado Rockies have a higher team batting average and OPS in the National League ….

Schoenfield drops a dose of realism in the closing paragraph, pointing out that the hot start may be “precarious” because, well, Braun’s thumb. And pitchers not getting injured.

Jay Jaffe points out that Carlos Gomez has been hot as hell:

Since going 2-for-10 in the Brewers’ opening series against the Braves, Gomez is 14-for-31 with six extra base hits and 25 total bases. In that span, he has a four-hit game, two three-hit games and two two-hit games to his credit en route to a batting line — .390/.432/.732 — that could come straight from a video game.

The rest of the piece contains more data making Twins’ fans gnash their teeth.